Thu. Mar 30th, 2023

Russia-Ukraine war propels global downturn
This is going to be a terrible year for the global economy.
The World Bank Global Economic Outlook, released last week, foresees a tilt toward recession, driven in part by the Ukraine war and a related downturn in the US and Europe, which are projected to be drags on, rather than engines of, growth. 
Growth forecasts (by the numbers): 
While China and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) fare better than the West in the bank’s score, the overall outlook is glum, or we should say more glum than just six months ago. David Malpass, the World Bank president, said that the coming year will be “particularly devastating” for the poorest countries, including those in the Middle East, burdened by the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as inflation, debt, and energy and food supply disruptions.
In addition, Western investment and development funds usually slotted for poor countries are being siphoned off to support Ukraine, which will likely also get the lion’s share of assistance when the war ends. 
While Middle East oil producers should muddle through, coming off a boom year in 2022, the region’s fragile states and economies — including Lebanon, Tunisia, Jordan — and those burdened by conflict — including Syria, Yemen, Libya, as well as the West Bank and Gaza — may edge toward crisis or even collapse. 
Five economic trends we are tracking for 2023, which you may be missing, if you’re not reading Al-Monitor Pro: 
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